After listening to about 2 hours or so of testimony from DPHHS administrators, chronicling the dire outlook for the economic well-being of the hundreds of thousands of needy souls who will wander through the portals of the state’s various social welfare offices during the next two years and plaintively whining about the worsening situations facing a dramatically increasing number of poor Montanans, freshman senator Rowlie Hutton (R-Havre) hit the proverbial nail smack on the head.

Senator Hutton respectfully queried the gentleman from DPHHS about how they could be projecting such a significant increased demand for social services when the governor’s office is telling the legislature that the state’s economic future will be brighter than a neon flamingo.

Oops. Cue the deer-in-headlights, jaw-drop look by said administrator. Hadn’t thought that one through. Which is it Governor — a robust, healthy, growing economy that will magically fill the state’s coffers to practically overflowing with abundance – or a bleak biennium beset by burgeoning demands of a continuing downturn?

Maybe the administration ought to decide what tune they want to sing and make sure the whole choir has the same music.

Two weeks of vacation. Ok – so it’s not like I didn’t do anything constructive, but let’s just say that getting the old bod out of bed, showered, dressed and out in the cold at 7-dark-thirty-ish hasn’t been part of the routine.

How cold is it supposed to be tomorrow morning? Cripes.

Two of Montana’s highest profile politicos are busily playing games as they contemplate their next moves.

In what has become a not-so-secret deliberation (the sleazey insert in the Christmas card being a dead giveaway – DUH!) of possible future plans, Denny Rehberg is pulling all sorts of strings and dirty stunts behind the scenes to keep his options open for either a run for the Senate (Denny’s favorite – less likely to be successful) or governor (less desirable in Denny’s mind, but better odds of winning) in 2012. Knowing full-well that a successful run for either of those offices requires a longer-than-ever funding marathon, Denny is actively thwarting the campaigns of the leading candidates for both offices while he dithers around deciding which direction suits his fancy. Informal polls around the state show very little support for Denny for either office, and most insiders are clearly less than enthused with the prospect of Denny as a candidate for any office other than the one he currently holds. Yet it seems our lone Republican Congress Critter may be suffering from some kind of self-delusion that imagines a groundswell of support that shows no sign of existing in reality.

WHAT IS HE THINKING?

Hopefully, somebody will provide the much-warranted slap upside the head that Denny needs to come to his senses. Call it the contempt of the familiar or just a general lack of enthusiasm, whatever – but Denny’s support is lukewarm at best. He no longer generates the kind of passion that it will take to win a hard-fought campaign – primary or general.

But that’s only one side of the picture. Look at what’s going on across the aisle, where the Democrats are staring at their own 800-pound gorilla — in the guise of Brian Schweitzer. Regarded as one of the most astute political strategists around (not to mention a legend in his own mind), the Gov is also well-known for his insatiable, driving ambition. No way is he going to be content sitting on the dock at Georgetown Lake fishing. A recent telephone poll indicates that Big Bri is also eying Jon Tester’s senate seat. This is not sitting well with the Democrat Party insiders and a contested primary would be most unwelcome by the party faithful. If the poll questions are any indication of Brian’s thinking, he knows a contested primary would not end in his favor. So he’s apparently contemplating a run as an independent candidate, thus bypassing a bloody primary battle. Basing his possible campaign on his “widespread popularity” and his well-known “independent” political streak, Schweitzer apparently thinks that by running as a “non-party” candidate, he can appeal to disillusioned TEA Partiers, and the vast bastion of the politically unaware.

WHAT IS HE THINKING?

Certainly his recent attacks on the Legislature, his continued dismissive treatment of the environmentalists, and his sudden conversion to a pro-growth, pro-business agenda tend to underscore a populist campaign in the making. The party leaders will be hard-pressed to thwart the political force that Brian envisions himself to be.

It’s anybody’s guess as to how things will play out. If both Brian and Denny decide to take a whack at Jon Tester’s senate seat, poor Jon’s going to feel like the proverbial pinata for the next two years. In a three-way race – with three equally well-known candidates, there’s never a sure bet.

One thing’s for sure, though: For political junkies, it’s shaping up to be a fascinating exercise in strategery, tactics, moves, countermoves, and self-serving press-releases up the ying-yang.

Fasten your seat belts – the spin starts now!

And the angel said unto them, “Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger. And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men”

Enjoy every minute of your day where ever you are. Political snark to resume tomorrow.

The Phantom slowly, gravely, silently approached. When it came, Denny bent down upon his knee; for in the very air through which this Spirit moved it seemed to scatter gloom and mystery. It was shrouded in a deep black garment, which concealed its head, its face, its form, and left nothing of it visible save one outstretched hand.

“Am I in the presence of the Ghost of Christmas Yet To Come?” said Denny.

The Spirit answered not, but pointed downward with its hand. “Ghost of the Future!” he exclaimed, “I fear you more than any spectre I have seen. But as I know your purpose is to do me good, and as I hope to live to be another man from what I was, I am prepared to bear you company, and do it with a thankful heart. Will you not speak to me?”

It gave him no reply… The Spirit stopped beside one little knot of business men. Observing that the hand was pointed to them, Denny advanced to listen to their talk.

“I don’t understand how he could do this,” said the first man, shaking his head in dismay. “Not only did he lose against Tester, but because he gave up his seat in the House, Montana now has a completely Democratic Congressional delegation and he stopped the momentum we needed to carry the state races.”

“It is so hard to understand how such a smart man could risk his political future at such a critical time in the nation’s history,” lamented the next man. The woman standing next to him began to cry. “We could have had victories in both races if he had only acted more selflessly. Instead, he had to unleash his own ambition and sacrifice the conservative momentum we started in 2010.”

The third man joined in, “Why didn’t someone stop him when he started putting those feelers out right after the election? Didn’t he see what the rest of us could – that he could keep his House seat because he was doing a good enough job and finally he had some real power on Appropriations that could further the conservative cause? The Democrats didn’t have a strong candidate to run against him. Van Dyk wasn’t the shining star they hoped he’d be, and Schweitzer was already focusing on a run against Max in 2014. Instead Rehberg crawled out on a flimsy limb that broke under the weight of his record when compared against a candidate with a strong base. He had to have known that, in the end, the left-wing nuts would come back into the fold! ”

Denny and the Phantom came into the presence of another man, just as a corpulent woman slunk into the shop. But she had scarcely entered, when another woman came in too; and she was closely followed by a man in faded black, who was no less startled by the sight of them, than they had been upon the recognition of each other. After a short period of blank astonishment, in which the old man with the pipe had joined them, they all three burst into a laugh.

“Who would have thunk it – Denny Rehberg knocked down the dominos for us,” chortled the man in black. “We never could have kept Tester’s seat if he hadn’t entered the race. And with him leaving the House race open, it was a no-brainer for Schweitzer to walk right into Congress. And I don’t think Brian would have considered the House this year if Denny hadn’t left the race open.”

“We couldn’t have designed a better outcome if we tried,” the fat lady warbled as she warmed up for her aria. “After the 2010 elections, it looked like there was almost no chance that we could hold on to the Senate seat, grab the House, and keep the Governor’s office, the SOS, Auditor, and Attorney General too. The momentum was all in the Republicans’ favor for all the top tier races until Denny gave us just the opening we needed.”

The music started to play and the fat lady began singing. “We wouldn’t have had a chance if Jon had had to run against someone with no Congressional garbage, no voting record we could relentlessly attack for two years, day in and day out, someone with no history of misstatements, no YouTube gaffes, no stupid practical jokes about sheep, and no “drinking episodes” that we could drag out, prop up, dust off, and recycle into a sledge hammer that we could use to bludgeon Denny with incessantly. Heck, we were even able to bloody him up with crap that shouldn’t have even touched him!”

She continued her solo. “You’d have thought that, after the way we ‘Abramoffed’ Conrad Burns for two years, that Denny would have been smarter than to give us all that ammunition and two years to beat him with it. Golly, he even handed us a stupid firefighter issue that had no more substance than the one we used against Burns and we were able to pummel him with that too.”

By now, the fat lady was in full voice, hitting every high note on the score. “He had to know that the DNC and Schumer would be pouring bazillions of dollars into the election efforts for Tester. And yeah, Jon had some baggage to haul around: ObamaCare, Bank Bailouts, the second Stimulus bill and his stealth wilderness land-grab. They would have been fatal against a candidate who hadn’t spent years voting for some of the unpopular Bush agenda and flip-flopping around on earmarks. Even though Jon tacked more to the center the after the 2010 election and had our fringe voters’ knickers in knots, where did Denny think the far left was gonna go?”

By now the sound of shattering crystal was a constant accompaniment to the orchestration. “But I guess it’s easy for a guy to start thinking that because he won his last three elections so handily he could take on a real opponent. Cripes, he hasn’t had a decent competitor since his first race against Nancy Keenan. Kelly, Velazquez,and Lindeen hardly gave him a race, but Driscoll and McDonald were nothin’ more than token place holders. He must have gotten the impression that he was some kind of unbeatable candidate. We suckered him! He started to believe his own press and he got his head – not to mention his whole party – handed to him on a platter. I do love it when the Ozymandias Effect kicks in and the mighty crumble.”

At this point the fat lady’s singing was getting to be more than a little annoying to Denny and he turned to the Phantom.

“Spirit,” he said, “this is a fearful place. In leaving it, I shall not leave its lesson, trust me. Let us go.”

Still the Ghost pointed with an unmoved finger to the head. A churchyard. The Spirit stood among the graves, and pointed down to One. He advanced towards it trembling.

“Before I draw nearer to that stone to which you point,” said Denny, “answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only? Men’s courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead. But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me.”

Denny crept towards it, trembling as he went; and following the finger, read upon the stone of the neglected grave…

“Here lies the hopes of Montana laid waste to the ambition of a single man.”

Fiction? Fantasy? Maybe. Maybe not. But this is the scenario that other Montanans are visualizing. Denny may choose to ignore the wisdom of the masses. He wouldn’t be the first politician to do so. Perhaps he has internal polls that suggest the opposite of what conventional wisdom dictates. He holds the fate of the state’s conservatives in his hands.

In parting, I leave you with this thought as we embrace the dawn of this Christmas Day and what we hope will be a brighter future than the one shown us by the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come:

“God bless us, everyone!”

*With gratitude and apologies to Mr. Dickens

Speculation about Denny’s intentions for 2012 have heated up over the past few days as his Christmas card hit the streets and his minions have scurried forth with instructions to gin up support from every corner of the state.

While I work on my Christmas classic – “The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come” – which will share a vision of a Yuletide two years in the future, go ahead and share your thoughts here…

Add your thoughts below.

Apparently our own junior senator, Jon Tester, is trying to qualify for a spot on the popular ABC show, Dancing With the Stars. While watching the good senator’s ample gut glide gracefully across the floor week after week as he turns and twists to the cha-cha, paso doble, and waltz would be entertainment of a sort, the real show-stopper would be his well-practiced Montana Two-Step.

Jon-boy learned this dance at the hands of the uncontested master of the art-form, Max Baucus. For years (36 of them) Max has practiced, refined, and won contest after contest with his incomprehensible mastery of this seemingly simple concept. And now, in his first bid for re-election, Max’s starry-eyed protege Jon is already demonstrating his skill in this chasse: Take one position at home, and change 180 degrees once the election is over and you’re safely ensconced in DC. Repeat during the next campaign cycle. It’s a dance that has worked very well when accompanied by the liberal tune played by the Montana Lame Street Media.

Remember in 2006 – his debate with Conrad Burns – when Jon complained vociferously against earmarks? [Move the timer to about the 9 minute mark.]

Now see how he is deftly moving from that original position:

In a 2006 debate, Tester railed against earmarks that snuck through without scrutiny, and then went one step further. “Quite frankly, I don’t support earmarks, period,” the future senator said. Asked Wednesday by THE WEEKLY STANDARD about this quote, Tester first responded, “I haven’t eaten lunch yet,” [ed. note: Doesn’t look to me like he’s missed many.] before clarifying he is against earmarks “without transparency.” That’s a different tune from his 2006 debate statement that he was against all earmarks “period.”

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Tester has sponsored or co-sponsored at least 239 earmarks since entering the Senate, including 92 earmarks totaling over $108 million for the 2010 fiscal year. Just months after Tester came to Washington, he issued a press release boasting of the $20 million earmarked for Montana in the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development appropriations bill. That bill included a $500,000 earmark to renovate Cobb field, the stadium home to the Billings Mustangs–a minor league baseball team of the Cincinnati Reds.

And today in the Helena Independent Record (and probably all the other major dailies in the state as well), the good senator quickly takes his dance a step to the right by DEFENDING EARMARKS. Note how crisply he moves from “against all earmarks, period” to focus on “transparency” and the need to route taxpayer money to fund important projects in Montana (like renovating Cobb Field?). What the hell did he think earmarks were when he was so opposed to them? He deftly implies that somehow the earmarks have fundamentally changed since 2006 and because it is now “transparent” earmarks are good. We actually have a different name for that dance here in Big Sky Country. We call it “the Bullpucky Tango”. Earmarks are exactly the same in 2010 as they were in 2006. The fact that now they are listed on congressional websites doesn’t change the inherent nature of earmarks. If they were bad in 2006 then ol’ “Twinkle Toes Tester” can’t just step to the right to explain his new position.

Plan on seeing a lot more of this right-left, twist-turn, left-right, back-forward, s-l-i-d-e dancing for the next 22 and a half months as Jon razzels and dazzles around the state. In order to win the mirror ball in this episode of the spin-off version of DWTS – Dancing With The Senator, Jon will have to two-step his way through a whole long list of having one position during a campaign and a completely different one when he gets back to Washington. He’ll also have plenty of opportunity to demonstrate the popular “Politician’s Polka”. Keep watching as he double-times through his statements here at home and his votes in the Senate: Against deficit spending during a campaign and voting for the the most egregious federal spending of all time once he was elected; Saying one thing in front of Montana audiences and then supporting Harry Reid and Barack Obama”s socialist programs and policies when he gets to DC.

DWTS is destined to become a very popular feature in Montana for the next several months. Expect to see more than a few fancy moves as Tester tries to explain his senate votes for the past two terms – especially his vote for ObamaCare, and his failure to listen to his constituents. It’s entirely possible that his “Lame Duck Waddle” will be the turning point and, like his mentor Max, Jon will start dancing to a different song. Hopefully one that ends with a Promenade Left out of the senate in November 2012.

h/t to my cyber-buddy “WeeWeed”

For more

3562. Three thousand, five hundred sixty-two. Remember that number.

Now lets go back to election night 2006. For those of you who weren’t paying much attention to politics back then, or for any of you who, like me, are operating with 256K memories in a 4G world, let me re-set the stage. November 7, 2006 was the beginning of the Democrats’ takeover of American political power. You probably don’t remember, but as the results poured in from the East Coast and across the Heartland, one senate seat after another that had been red turned blue. And finally, sometime after ten – or was it eleven?- p.m. Mountain Time, the final wall was breached: The media called it – Montana’s junior senator, Conrad Burns was defeated by his Democrat opponent, Jon Tester.

Over 410,000 votes were cast in that race, and 3,562 – less than 1% – of them made the difference. What difference, you ask?

The difference that on December 24, 2009 gave this country Obamacare. Before there was Scott Brown, there was Jon Tester, the last best vote that Obama needed to ram his 2000-page abomination down the throats of the American people. No special deals like Louisiana, no bribes ala Nebraska, just pure unadulterated liberal commitment to the cause.

Gee, thanks, Jon. But no thanks. I think we’ll take what’s behind curtain number 2012.

Last summer, when Congress was in recess, Jon somehow missed those town hall meetings all over the state. And somehow the thousands and thousands of letters, emails, and phone messages just never got through to him, because even though almost 70% of the people of Montana opposed the healthcare bill, Jon, Harry, Nancy and Obummer, himself, had an agenda they were going to advance whether we wanted it or not.

2010 and 2012 are years of reckoning for liberals who refused to listen to their constituents.

Yesterday, I had the honor and pleasure of being invited to Steve Daines’ announcement that he will run against Jon Tester in 2012. Steve is a very impressive individual and one of the nicest people I have ever met. He’s been working behind the scene for the last two years to get ready to launch his campaign and the event yesterday was as professional and well-orchestrated as any campaign kick-off I’ve ever seen. It bodes well for a positive result. But there is much to be done between now and November, 2012.

In his announcement speech yesterday, Steve quoted from the Declaration of Independence: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. ”

That’s the part that the Democrats forgot last year. Two weeks ago “the governed” withdrew their consent to the House; in two years we must do the same to the Senate.

Today, I am beginning my personal campaign to send Jon Tester back to Big Sandy, MT. It’s a very small farming village (population 703), and I’m going to be doing my level best to see to it that they get their idiot back come January 2013. You can help, too, by becoming members of the 3562 Club:

First, please go to Steve’s FB page and “like” it: Can we get 3562 people to like “Montana Needs Steve Daines for US Senate” by Christmas Eve? We can, if you help and share this message with your friends and email lists.

And second, for those of you who can and are so inclined, please consider a contribution to his campaign. If you can, remember that number I shared at the beginning of the post. Could you help by sending $35.62 to retire Montana’s flat-topped progressive senator? How about making that a monthly contribution from now until November, 2012? That’s only about 1 lunch a week. Isn’t America’s future worth at least that much?

You can learn more about Steve and why I am so excited that he is willing to take on this important role at this time in our history by visiting his website, and feel free to sign up for the newsletter, emails, or even become a volunteer.

Montana usually doesn’t capture headlines when it comes to national elections. Our measley three electoral votes generally cast us into the “Ignore” barrel when it comes to attracting national attention and make us the definition of flyover country. But we discovered in 2009 that our elections can and do have national consequences and reminded us that every single vote matters: If Jon Tester had not been in the Senate last Christmas Eve, Harry Reid wouldn’t have even been able to bring Obamacare to the floor.