Since this summer camp thing was a spur-of-the-moment thing, the Camp Director hasn’t really thought out the activities for the day. Swimming? Thanks, but actually we’re drowning in debt. Staying out of the rising water seems like a better plan. Hiking? Lovely day for it. Does anyone have any idea where we’re headed? Horseback riding? Gosh – all I can see out there are horses’ rear ends.
So what’s say we indulge in a couple of my favorite pastimes – political gossip and speculation. Sound like fun?
I’ll start with some inside baseball from Big Sky Country. Whispers on the street have it that our Republican (yeah, right!) Lt. Governor will be retiring soon, so that state senator Dave Wanzenried (D-Missoula) can step in to get a leg up on the Gov’s seat in 2012. The news here is not so much that Bohlinger may be exiting stage left, but that Wanzenried would be the designated replacement. Not that Dave doesn’t have gubernatorial aspirations, but – jeeze, pleeze. They have to have more bench strength than that!!
Along a similar vein, announced Dem candidate Dennis McDonald who is challenging Montana’s lone republican Congressman, Denny Rehberg, seems to be floundering in a sea of antipathy verging on hostility. Evidently the funds haven’t been pouring in to the former Democrat Party Chairman’s coffers the way they need to be to wrest the one remaining statewide conservative seat. Not really surprising, since the California transplant is pretty much regarded as “all hat, no cattle” around the state. So the big boys in the back room are puffing away and blowing a bunch of smoke up the skirt of Whitney Williams – daughter of former Congressman Pat Williams and State Senator and Majority Leader, Carol Williams. 
The Williams family are huge Hillary supporters, by the way, and although they couldn’t swing the state for Clinton in the primary, I suspect there’s more than one favor to be called in. Whitney has an impressive resume to go with her family background and could be a formidable candidate, but for one teeeney-weeney little thingy: She left Montana years ago and hasn’t been back except to check in with Mumsy and Daddikins from time to time and do some post grad work at UofM. Obviously, Montanans aren’t exactly offended by a non-resident representative in DC (Max Baucus hasn’t lived in the state since he was first elected in 1978!), but it might be a bit harder to justify importing a community organizer from Seattle just to run against a guy who still regards Washington as the place where he works and Montana is where he lives. We like that kind of thinking here. But the speculation is a ton of fun.
On the national scene, HillBuzz favorite and Hillary replacement Kirsten Gillibrand is likely to have a challenger in Carolyn Maloney, the long-time Congresswoman who is known in these parts as one of the strongest and most out-spoken anti-gun advocates in the House. She couldn’t get elected dog catcher around here, but is apparently a serious threat in NY. HillBuzzers may have to do a little campaigning for Ms. Gillibrand.
Ok – my lunch break is about over – so now I’m turning this over to you guys. What’s going on in your corners of the country? Who’s in? Who’s out? Who cares? Share!!!
When is Tester (D-MT and local farmer) up for re-election? Too bad Maxie wasn’t up for election this year. I have heard so many grumblings about him these past few months…it would be good to see his political career go down in flames.
Good Morning from New York.
From what I can gather, the announcement by Carolyn Maloney is causing a mixed reaction.
She is a popular congresswoman and has her supporters.
Others fear that she will cause a disruption in the party. As I suppose she will.
She is not my representative and I don’t know much about her. Her anti-gun attitude, however, is enough to turn me off.
I’m afraid I don’t know much about my new Sen. Gillibrand either. She hasn’t made much noise yet about anything – if you know what I mean.
I don’t dare get inside someone else’s head, but I have a feeling that Ms. Maloney considers this her last chance for a senate seat. Unfortunately, we are never going to get rid of Shumer.
Anyway, it’s a long way off and things can happen quickly in politics.
Ask me next year at this time and I might be able to tell you who I’ll campaign for. 🙂
Interesting about Bohlinger. Wanzenreid pretty liberal – should fit right in the BS administration. Testor up for re-election in 2012 I believe. Max in 2014.
Speculation that Max won’t run again and BS will make a stab at his seat. Or let Max step down early after his health care crap is rejected, BS can appoint himself to take his place, Wanzenried could then move up and be the incumbent guv’nor in ’12.
Interested in your thoughts on an independent challenging Tester in ’12. What do you think chances would be?
noobamagma ~
What do I think the chances of an independent challenging Tester?
I think there’s a very good to excellent chance that an independent candidate will emerge. Given the strong ultra-right-wing activism in certain areas of this state, I’d be more surprised if someone from that political mindset doesn’t throw a hat in the ring.
What do I think the chances of an independent SUCCESSFULLY challenging Tester?
There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell.
An independent or third party candidate – even if it is somebody who is well-known, beloved, and has more money than Bill Gates – would simply guarantee Jon six more years in Washington.
Simple math: Figure that Montana – at best could be 60% “conservative” – 20% moderate/independent, 20% solid Republican, 10% Libertarian (socially liberal, fiscally conservative), and 10% Constitutionalist (uber-rightwingers, Ron Paulers, etc.) That leaves 40% of the population who are liberal, progressive, or moderate Democrats. Assume that virtually all of them will support Tester – not just because he’s one of “theirs”, but because he’s doing a pretty good job, hasn’t po’d any huge constituency, is actually gaining support from Veterans (a usually right leaning group). So, unless the roof really falls in on the Dems and Tester’s base deserts him, he’s probably guaranteed 45 – 48%. That would leave an opening for the other side – but if the conservative/Republican voters are divided – it would only take 3 – 6% to support the independent and usher in Tester’s victory.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The two-party system is firmly entrenched in American politics. And within each party – Democrat, Republican, Federalist, Whig, Bullmoose, whatever – the members of the party and the non-member supporters – espouse a huge spectrum of positions on different issues. Americans align themselves with the party that most closely represents their personal views on the issues that are most important to them. That’s why there are pro-life Democrats and pro-choice Republicans. Even though those two parties have very strong positions on that issue, I would submit that the “renegades” are more concerned with some other issue – that is endorsed by their party of choice. I like to call it the “50% + 1 Rule”. We support the party/candidate who thinks like we do on 50% of the issues, plus the one that is most important to us.
Oops – sorry – must get off soapbox now. Point made: An independent candidate cannot beat Tester unless a huge miracle occurs. If you have a potential candidate in mind – get in touch with the state GOP and your county Republican Central Committee and let’s work TOGETHER to get a credible conservative candidate nominated and elected.
I was thinking of being that candidate….thinking perhaps that people are turned off by both parties. The fact that Tester and few in congress have read the critical bills that have/will be passed is terrible.
So keep thinking – of being the Republican candidate!!! I think there is a recognition within the party that “politics as usual” isn’t going to work in 2010. We must have new faces!!!
I actually agree that people are turned off by both parties – but when push comes to shove, enough voters still gravitate to the familiar, so the only way for an independent to win is if the candidates from both parties are weak and the independent is very well known and liked. Think Joe Lieberman. The basic problem in Montana’s 2012 Senate race is that Tester is a strong candidate – and he’ll not only keep his base, he’ll get a decent number of traditionally Republican votes. So an independent candidate ends up way behind before the race even starts.
That being said – things can change. But if you are serious about running a third party campaign with any intention of winning, plan on raising and spending at least $1 – $1.5 million. With no guarantees.
You are obviously well connected and informed … and I’m presuming a Hillary supporter. Are you a Dem, done-Dem, Repub., other??
P.S. I make the assumption of being a Hillary supporter as I found your comments and link to your blog on Hillbuzz.
I’m a life-long R, but pretty moderate to liberal on social issues – conservative on fiscal issues. I believe in smaller government, but I am not anti-government, so I don’t fit in with the uber-conservative movement. It’s not that I’m a Hillary supporter, but I found HillBuzz last summer right after the Dem convention and really enjoyed the Boyz’ posts and especially love the community of regular commenters. It is so nice to go to a site where the comments aren’t full of profanity, ad hominem attacks, and other such crap. Turns out that many of us are about the same age and there’s a really good mix of political views with all of us having at least one thing in common – we can’t stand BO and his policies! It’s my favorite blog (besides this one of course!).
As for “connected and informed” – I think that translates into “political junkie”. I. LOVE. POLITICS. Poly sci major in college (“did you want Freedom fries with that?”) and I have been involved in campaigns since I was a little kid. My father was a lobbyist, so I grew up in a highly politically-charged environment. Many of the state’s top political figures were frequent guests in our home. Now that the kids are grown and we’re back here in Montana where you can have a full-time job and a life, I’ve been able to get really active in the party. I just finished a term as the county Central Committee Chair and now I’m heading up our Candidate Resource Team – recruiting people to run and then providing support and help for them. It’s a blast!
Where do you live? I’d love to visit with you more about getting involved and running for office.
I’m currently living in Dallas area …ready to move back to Big Sky Country. I grew up in Missoula, attended CGF (same as Tester..only a couple years before him), moved with a job to Ca., Tx., Mich., and back to Texas. I have returned almost every summer to vacation in Montana and spend time with family throughout the state. I have 2 brothers who live in Helena. My sister just passed away unexpectedly in May in Missoula. All my nieces and nephews and their children live in Montana…I’m the only “black sheep”.
My options if I’d stayed in Montana were Sparkle Girl (traveling restroom inspection for gas company) and vacuum salesperson. I’d had some successes in school and that led to a job offer with a young computer firm.
25 plus years ago I bought a house in the Polson area for vacations and retirement and plan to move there. I’d be there now but had broken pipes this winter and repairs are underway. I’ll probably be there next week.
I know the Deschamps family from Missoula and if I’m not mistaken, Will is state Repub. chair. I would think it would be hard to be the Repub. party candidate as I haven’t paid my dues and worked for the state party…which I’d think would be a pre-req. …hence my thought of going independent. My plan was to hit the road for the next couple years and meet people face to face, listen to their concerns and introduce myself.
I know a drawback is the “carpet bagger” label which I’d most likely get tagged with (read your comments about “Maxie”) … but I’ve always considered myself a Montanan…not a Californian, Michigander nor Texan. My grandparents homesteaded and I grew up while my uncle ran the farm so I have an appreciation for farmers/ranchers. My job has given me experience in technology, health care and manufacturing (automotive) industries. And I’ve met people from all walks of life during my career.
This is probably way more info than you were looking for…
Have a great 4th!
nobamagma ~ Thank you for sharing that – definitely NOT TMI. You’re right – Will is the new state chair. He’s a great guy and we’re thrilled to have a “grown-up” in charge for a change.
We’d sure love to have you back home!
I wouldn’t be too concerned about the “carpet-bagger” tag. You’ve certainly got Montana roots and if the Dems run Whitney Williams against Denny, that arrow is removed from their quiver. Besides, in my experience that’s an excuse that people use to justify voting against a candidate they had no intention of voting for in the first place.
Your three biggest hurdles are name recognition, money, and a popular incumbent. Other than that, it’s a cakewalk. LOL!
Would I know your brothers?
Possibly… one is retired / worked for state in Helena beginning in mid-70’s. He’d previously gone to the Naval Acad. and spent 6 years in nuclear subs. Couldn’t wait to get back to Montana and got his MBA at the UM. My other brother is currently Activities Director for Helena schools…went to Carroll College where he was QB. He’s worked for the district since mid-70’s. He is also the PGA Director for the state of Montana. Will definitely knows my brother as Will’s brother, Perry, went to school with him in Missoula. It’s probably his name recognition that would help me.
PS… the last name in my email is the same as my brothers’. I kept my maiden name.
I have met J. Don’t know him well, but he’s very well respected here in town. Not sure about older bro – probably have met him too. Girlfriend, we have to get you back to Montana soonest!!!!!
Glad to hear J. is respected… he’s probably the one who should run. : )
noobamagma: Don’t bother. The GOP is dead to reality in Montana. They despise traditional, non-interventionist Republicans because they are all neo-cons and love the big government military-industrial-congressional-banking complex. Unless you run on a peace platform since Tester and Obama are just as big of warmongers as the GOP. Maybe then you might have a chance. Cut Tester’s base away by being against the empire.
Dylan ~
Given your willingness to WORK to change things (NOT! When the going gets tough – you just pick up your toys and go home) , I resent the verbal grenade launch. The GOP is not at all “dead to reality”. That would be the johnny-come-latelys who blew in with all the answers – but forgot to read the questions first.
The anti-government, isolationist, Pat Buchanan-regurgitating Ron Paulites with their passionate revolution-thingy and their self-righteous indignation elected Obama.
Pardon me if I’m not buying what you’re selling. You and your philosophy are not, and never have been, the GOP. You represent a part of the party – but not the whole thing. If you continue to insist on a “purity” that has never existed in the party, all you’ll do is guarantee the liberal, progressive, socialist agenda will prevail for a long, long time.