Send In the Clowns

Alert. The. Media.

President Obama has neutralized the latest threat to his precious healthcare bill. Following hours of intense negotiations with labor union officials, Obama strategically gave in to every demand the union leaders wanted. Ben Nelson could hardly have done better.

The latest concession was given to the unions because they were threatening to pull their support from this really, really popular bill. It seems that the 40% tax on cadillac health plans would have hit their members right square in the wallets. Union leaders are usually pretty diligent about protecting their members’ paychecks – otherwise they might not have enough money to pay their union dues. So the arm wrestling began, and in classic Mob fashion – a concept that is apparently clearly understood by Illinois politicians – they made Obama an offer he couldn’t refuse. So he didn’t.

Unfortunately, there seem to be a couple of minor little issues hanging out there that could prove a touch – uhhh – “challenging” when the WH tries to sell the deal to Congress.

First, there’s been some speculation that the deal may be a little bit unconstitutional, but Obama and his Chicago buddies have never let that kind of thing stand in their way before, so why should they begin now? No problem. One down. What’s the other issue?

The other issue is somewhat trickier. It seems that the whole house of cards could tumble in a New York minute if the money angle doesn’t work. And there have been more financial contortions already in this process than a guy can keep up with. I don’t know how Obama will come up with the revenue to pay for this latest bribe, ahem, compromise – but that’s his problem. The original plan was expected to raise approximately $150 million, the deal negotiated with the unions cuts that revenue by $60 billion.

But what would happen if the insurance companies and larger employers, who are actually self-insured, restructure their “pricing” so that the plans covering union members have higher prices – and thus are not subject to the 40% tax, courtesy of this brilliant Obama deal – and plans for non-union members are priced lower – and thus are below the “cadillac” threshold?

Win-win-win for unions, employers, and millions of non-union employees. As far as escaping an unfair tax, anyway.

If you expand the exempt plans through some kind of repricing, that $60 billion could shrink faster than a cashmere sweater run through the washer and dryer. Which means Congress will have to find a way to restore that money through another tax. There’s already talk this morning that the Democrats in Congress are meeting today at their winter retreat about raising the Medicare tax. Remember those promises about “budget neutral”?

Call me silly, but I think the Democrats may be running out of suckers for this circus.

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