Big news this weekend is the result of the latest Rasmussen poll showing Mike Huckabee leading Mitt Romney in a hypothetical Republican match-up.
Talking heads and media experts are weighing in with all sorts of theories on how and why this might be happening. Conventional wisdom (whoever that may be) seems to be suggesting that either of these two are the candidates that the left would most like to have at the head of the Republican ticket because, ultimately, they are most beatable, and therefore their rankings are being artificially inflated. Maybe. I can see where that might be the case for MItt Romney. He definitely has a constituency within the Party, but I’m not so sure how large it really is at this point. And I can sure see where the Dems would have a field day attacking him in an election – so yeah – he probably could be the liberals’ favorite candidate. But what about Huckabee?
I have my own little theory: Since Mike’s been a regular on Fox News with his weekend show, which is fairly well-rated, he’s become a very identifiable quantity. He’s in our living rooms every week – a guest in our homes, as it were. We’ve seen him play his guitar, we’ve heard him ask his guests some questions that we would ask if given the opportunity, and we’ve seen him empathize with celebrities and “real people” in conversations that bring out his warm fuzzy side. His corny humor, silly grin, and balding crown are familiar characteristics in millions of American
homes.
Does it surprise me that Huckabee is leading the Republican pack then? Nope. It makes perfect sense. He’s the guy we know. He stops in every Saturday evening just before dinner and shares a few snicks and grins and a song or two. His show is politics-lite, so we don’t end up too divided by his personal stances on issues. He plays to the center-right. Unlike Glen Beck, he isn’t hammering an agenda that is likely to alienate anybody much. (The White House hasn’t painted a target on his forehead yet – so he’s not the candidate they fear either.) So when the pollster calls, the name of Mike Huckabee is a ready answer.
Political reality: People vote for the candidate they feel they know best. This is true at every level of politics. I will submit that this is the underlying reality for the success of most incumbent campaigns: Voters feel like they know what to expect from the guy or gal already holding the office, whether or not they really do, and whether or not their own political beliefs mesh. Whether it is more true here in Montana, I can’t tell you for sure, but just look at the way the voters swung between democrats and republicans in this state in the last election: Republican McCain for President, Democrat Schweitzer for Governor, Max for Senate and Denny for House. Trusting the familiar – even if they didn’t always like the person all that much or think he was the best possible candidate. (Have you ever heard anyone – from either side of the aisle – seriously suggest Max Baucus was our best and brightest? Me neither.)
The moral of this story is one that political candidates and their campaign managers need to take more to heart. It’s NOT about the issues or your position on the issues that will get you elected. It’s about how many people feel they know you. Except for a few who strictly vote party line (about 20% on each side) the majority of people will vote for a person they know – or think they know – rather than a candidate that more closely matches their own political views. You may not like that. And you’re right, that’s not the way to get the best government. But it’s the way it is. Plan your campaigns accordingly.
I would guess that if the R’s run either of those people, Obama will get to enjoy 4 more years. Obama will have to really screw up (ok, he is working on that) to not beat either of those two.
It’s sad, but I believe that Romney is un-electable due to his religion. Huckabee will appeal to the “religious right” but there is far more in the Party them just them (I hope). Huckabee is also just more big government and seems to lack an understanding of the 10th Amendment.
We need to find a freedom loving, fiscally conservative, small(er) government candidate that will undo some of the damage of the Bush years and hopefully will be able to fix whatever (else) Obama breaks, if there is anything left to fix.
Hey RP….think you’re right on….I like these two guys, but neither can win….
We have to find someone who can run with Palin as VP. And not let the media pick our loser candidate.
I just can’t find anyone out there. But we have 3 years to look and nobody knew who Obama, Clinton or Carter were before they came to the media’s attention.
Well, some of us are sitting on the sidelines waiting and watching, waiting and watching for Sarah to emerge. OK, it’s a long shot I know, Romney and Huckabee both have their own baggage so to speak, frankly I wish Sarah hadn’t thrown in the towel when she did with the Governor’s job that she was doing so well, but all that being said, Sarah is a scrappy little street fighter, if you didn’t know better one might think she had some political ‘roots’ in Butte. If Sarah doesn’t do it for you, who do you suggest. Right now I think the prospects are bleak at best. I agree with RP, we’re about to get stuck with another term with Snowbama and that makes me ill to think about.
I just listened to Jerri Thompson, wife of Sen. Fred Thompson (by the way Fred is in the process of writing a book) and her observations about the future of the Republican Party were insightful, she’s a smart lady who believes as I do that we better be looking for someone with some ‘Reagan Idealogy’ and stop setteling for any bumblebutt that happens to stumble into the GOP tent with the big “Pick-Me, Pick-Me” sign hanging around their neck, when we don’t know what they really stand for, who they bring with them and what kind of baggage they have.
Sarah’s a known quantity at this point and she’s not too terribly afraid of who she is or what she believes, so for now, my money is on the lady from Alaska until somebody can prove me wrong. She was certainly the best that that ever happened to ol’ John McCain, had that ticket been reversed maybe we’re all be singing Hail to the Chief, President Palin instead of Swing Low Sweet Chariot as we’re all pickin’ watermelons instead of Easter eggs on the White House lawn.
Sarah was popular with a certain segment of the party. My personal opinion is that while she is a very nice person and a decent governor, she would have been in way over her head had McCain croaked and she became President. Had she been able to get the experience of 4 yrs as VP, she might have been ready to run for the top spot. She was/is definitely lacking in the foreign policy arena – but then so is Obama and most of his Chicago thug regime. And as long as the US is determined to empire build and be the worlds policeman, we need someone strong on foreign policy – someone strong the rest of the world can respect. Not someone that bows and apologizes!
I’d have to guess if we run any of the 10 on the stage from last election, “The One” will get 4 more years and I doubt America can survive that in her present form.